Is it better for the opposition to contest unfair elections or boycott them?
There is no decision that is always right. Going to unfair elections can help the opposition to preserve the organization, talk to voters, monitor the polls, document abuses and show how much support there really is. But it can also give the appearance of legitimacy to a procedure in which the result cannot be seriously disputed.
Boycott can clearly show that conditions are not acceptable, but it has political weight only if it is broad, understandable to citizens and associated with the post-election pressure plan; otherwise, the government fills the blanks and proceeds at no greater cost. Therefore, the decision should be tied to the goal: what the opposition gets the day after the exit or boycott, whether it can remain unique and whether there is a realistic way to expand the chosen tactics, and not to narrow the space for future change.
No decision is always the best. The choice depends on how closed the system is, what the rules are and what the opposition can do after the exit or boycott.
Works supporting this answer, with their evidence type and an explanation of how they relate to the claim.
comparing several countries or cases
Howard, M. M. i Roessler, P. G. (2006), „Liberalizing Electoral Outcomes in Competitive Authoritarian Regimes“, American Journal of Political Science 50(2): 365–381.
- Contribution to this answer
- Howard and Roessler show that the opposition coalition can dramatically change the outcome of authoritarian elections. Participation can therefore open up a real opportunity when the opposition manages to overcome fragmentation.
comparing several countries or cases
Bunce, V. J. i Wolchik, S. L. (2011), Defeating Authoritarian Leaders in Postcommunist Countries, Cambridge University Press.
- Contribution to this answer
- Bounce and Wolchik show how coordinated opposition, civil society, voter work and election monitoring can turn unfair elections into a moment of real challenge to an authoritarian leader.
comparing several countries or cases
Gamboa, L. (2022), Resisting Backsliding: Opposition Strategies against the Erosion of Democracy, Cambridge University Press.
- Contribution to this answer
- Gamboa shows that the price of an opposition strategy should be calculated in the long run: a move may seem strong in the short term, yet isolate the opposition, spend legitimacy, or make it easier for the authorities to close the remaining institutional space.
comparing several countries or cases
Ong, E. (2022), Opposing Power: Building Opposition Alliances in Electoral Autocracies, University of Michigan Press.
- Contribution to this answer
- Ong shows why opposition cooperation is expensive and when it becomes possible: parties are easier to come together when they believe that the government is vulnerable and that they cannot win without each other.
comparing several countries or cases
Schedler, A. (2013), The Politics of Uncertainty: Sustaining and Subverting Electoral Authoritarianism, Oxford University Press.
- Contribution to this answer
- “Schedler shows that even a boycott is not automatic without political effect: it can delegitimize or destabilize electoral autocracy, but destabilization does not in itself guarantee democratization.
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