Explain how the system works

Kuran, T. (1991), „Now Out of Never: The Element of Surprise in the East European Revolution of 1989“, World Politics 44(1): 7–48.

Contribution to this answer

The Koran shows how there can be an illusion of stability just when many people privately dislike the existing system: since each individual sees the mostly public behavior of others, they all underestimate how much opposition really exists. That is why a major change may seem impossible just before the public opposition suddenly explodes.

review more research

Kuran, T. (1995), Private Truths, Public Lies: The Social Consequences of Preference Falsification, Harvard University Press.

Contribution to this answer

A broader explanation is the vicious cycle of falsifying preferences: I hide what I think because I believe I am lonely; others because of my silence conclude the same; our silence then gives everyone an even stronger reason to keep quiet.

review more research

Miller, D. T. (2023), „A Century of Pluralistic Ignorance: What We Have Learned About Its Origins, Forms, and Consequences“, Frontiers in Social Psychology 1.

Contribution to this answer

Miller gives this phenomenon a psychological name pluralistic ignorance: members of the group systematically misjudge other people’s private views. Therefore, the norm can seem widely accepted even when a large number of people do not support it privately.

Historical data and comparison

Michel, J., Miller, M. K. i Peters, M. E. (2023), „How Authoritarian Governments Decide Who Emigrates: Evidence from East Germany“, International Organization 77(3): 527–563.

Michel, J., Miller, M. K. i Peters, M. E. (2023), “How Authoritarian Governments Decide Who Emigrates: Evidence from East Germany,” International Organization 77(3): 527–563.

Contribution to this answer

Michel, Miller and Peters show another way in which discontent can disappear from domestic politics: authoritarian government can selectively allow the most active opponents to emigrate and thus reduce opposition at home, while retaining citizens who are important to its economy or security. This does not explain why people think they are a minority, but why real discontent does not have to remain organized within the country.

data from a large number of countries

Beissinger, M. R. (2022), The Revolutionary City: Urbanization and the Global Transformation of Rebellion, Princeton University Press.

Contribution to this answer

Beissinger shows why cities can suddenly change this calculation: the concentration of a large number of people in a public space makes opposition visible, accelerates the flow of information and allows individuals to understand very quickly that they are not alone. But such rapid mass gatherings simultaneously create uncertain and often very heterogeneous coalitions.