Research framework and broader academic knowledge base
Serbia: documented application of the same framework
Do people support a government because of real results or because of the image it creates?
Both real results and the image of them can create support. Wage growth, better services, peace or infrastructure change everyday life and can be a justified reason for citizens to reward the government. But people do not see the results directly and completely: the media choose what is being compared, the government claims success, hides price and mistakes, and presents opponents as incompetent or dangerous.
The same citizen can at the same time have real benefit and overestimate the merits of the authorities due to unequal information. These two things do not need to be artificially separated. To understand the support, it is necessary to check what has changed objectively, who paid the price, how reliable the data is, what information was available to people and how the attitude changes when they receive a credible different explanation.
When the economy grows and support grows, it does not yet show what the cause is. People see the results differently and decide differently to whom the credit belongs.
Works supporting this answer, with their evidence type and an explanation of how they relate to the claim.
comparing several countries or cases
Guriev, S. i Treisman, D. (2019), „Informational Autocrats“, Journal of Economic Perspectives 33(4): 100–127.
- Contribution to this answer
- Guriev and Treisman show how modern “information autocrats” try to remain popular by convincing citizens that they are capable: they emphasize the results, use propaganda and prevent better informed people from passing on information that destroys the image. Support can therefore rest on the results and on controlling the way citizens see them.
Explain how the system works
Guriev, S. i Treisman, D. (2020), „A Theory of Informational Autocracy“, Journal of Public Economics 186: 104158.
- Contribution to this answer
- Their model precisely separates these two things: citizens assess the ability of the leader from their standard of living, state propaganda and information they receive from independent and better informed actors. The leader can therefore work really well but he can also invest in making it look more capable than it is.
analysis of surveys
Geddes, B. i Zaller, J. (1989), „Sources of Popular Support for Authoritarian Regimes“, American Journal of Political Science 33(2): 319–347.
- Contribution to this answer
- On Brazil Geddes and Zaller show that state messages can really affect support, but that influence depends on how politically informed people are and what alternative information they are exposed to. The support we see need not be just a reaction to objective results or just fear.
Explain how the system works
Wallace, J. (2022), Seeking Truth and Hiding Facts: Information, Ideology, and Authoritarianism in China, Oxford University Press.
- Contribution to this answer
- Wallace shows one problem that arises even before propaganda towards citizens: the government can get a distorted picture of its own results because officials embellish the numbers that the top rewards. Thus, the difference between the “real result” and the “image of the results” can exist even within the state itself.
comparing several countries or cases
Schiffrin, A. (ur.) (2017), In the Service of Power: Media Capture and the Threat to Democracy, CIMA/NED.
- Contribution to this answer
- Schiffrin and the authors in the proceedings show how political and economic elites can, through ownership, financing and other dependencies, weaken the independence of private media. Thus, the government does not have to invent a good image of itself it is enough that it has a great influence on what information that image can seriously question.
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