Research framework and broader academic knowledge base
Serbia: documented application of the same framework
How do many small changes turn into a completely different system?
Many small changes become a new system when each of them facilitates the next. If the government weakens the media first, the citizens have a harder time finding out about later abuses; if it then affects the courts and the prosecution, these abuses have a harder time getting legal consequences; if it then uses public resources in elections, it is easier to win a new mandate and get time for further changes.
A single move may seem technical, temporary or not big enough to cause resistance, but their totality changes the balance of power. It is important therefore to look at the direction and connection between decisions: whether different changes repeatedly reduce the possibility of power being checked, limited or dismissed. The transition to authoritarian power is often a process of accumulating advantages, not a dramatic break.
There is no single order in which every democracy weakens. The same move can be much more dangerous if other protections have already been removed.
Works supporting this answer, with their evidence type and an explanation of how they relate to the claim.
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Waldner, D. i Lust, E. (2018), „Unwelcome Change: Coming to Terms with Democratic Backsliding“, Annual Review of Political Science 21: 93–113.
- Contribution to this answer
- Waldner and Lust show why a series of small institutional changes should be viewed together: democratic decline is caused by the accumulation of changes in competition, participation and responsibility, not necessarily by a single dramatic event.
data from a large number of countries
Lührmann, A. i Lindberg, S. I. (2019), „A Third Wave of Autocratization Is Here: What Is New About It?“, Democratization 26(7): 1095–1113.
Lührmann, A. i Lindberg, S. I. (2019), "A Third Wave of Autocratization Is Here: What Is New About It?", Democratization 26(7): 1095–1113.
- Contribution to this answer
- Lhrmann and Lindbergh find that modern autocracy most often takes place through a gradual reduction of democratic rights and restrictions, so individual steps may seem small as their sum changes regime.
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Grillo, E., Luo, Z., Nalepa, M. i Prato, C. (2024), „Theories of Democratic Backsliding“, Annual Review of Political Science 27: 381–400.
- Contribution to this answer
- Grillo, Luo, Nalepa and Prato classify theories of backwardness according to whether the government is attacking electoral competition or expanding executive power and whether obstacles come from voters or horizontal institutions. This shows that small steps may belong to different but related erosion pathways.
comparing several countries or cases
Scheppele, K. L. (2018), „Autocratic Legalism“, University of Chicago Law Review 85(2): 545–583.
- Contribution to this answer
- Scheppele shows how democracy can be dismantled by a series of technical and formally legal changes that individually do not seem crucial, but together reshuffle appointments, jurisdictions and procedures in favor of the executive.
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Lührmann, A. (2021), „Disrupting the Autocratization Sequence: Towards Democratic Resilience“, Democratization 28(5): 1017–1039.
Lührmann, A. (2021), "Disrupting the Autocratization Sequence: Towards Democratic Resilience", Democratization 28(5): 1017–1039.
- Contribution to this answer
- Lhrmann describes autocratization as a sequence with multiple stages and points at which the process may still be interrupted. This helps to read a number of minor changes as a related process rather than as isolated incidents.
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