Research framework and broader academic knowledge base
Serbia: documented application of the same framework
How can a crisis and conflict within the government open a path to change?
The crisis changes the resources, relationships and expectations of the people who maintain power. The economic downturn can reduce the money for prizes, the military defeat can damage the reputation of the top, and the dispute over the successors divide the party or services. When important allies no longer believe that the leader can protect them, they begin to look for an alternative.
A limited political opening can then allow citizens to connect, exchange information and see that the system is weaker than it presents itself. But the crisis does not automatically lead to democracy: it can justify extraordinary measures, unite the elite around fear or bring a new authoritarian group. Change becomes possible when the division within the government merges with organized social pressure and when services, institutions and external allies change the expectation of who will survive.
The crisis can make the government stronger, and the limited opening can remain under its control. The outcome depends on the services, people within the government, the organization of opponents and outside help.
Works supporting this answer, with their evidence type and an explanation of how they relate to the claim.
comparing several countries or cases
O’Donnell, G. i Schmitter, P. C. (1986), Transitions from Authoritarian Rule: Tentative Conclusions about Uncertain Democracies, Johns Hopkins University Press.
- Contribution to this answer
- O’Donnell and Schmitter show why divisions within the authoritarian elite are often crucial: when a part of the people in power begins to believe that the system can no longer be maintained in the same way, there is room for liberalization, negotiations and new alliances. But once the process begins, even those who have opened it can no longer fully control its outcome.
comparing several countries or cases
Haggard, S. i Kaufman, R. R. (2016), Dictators and Democrats: Masses, Elites, and Regime Change, Princeton University Press.
- Contribution to this answer
- Haggard and Kaufman on dozens of transitions show how change is produced in various combinations of pressure from below and initiative or division among the elites from above. Some democratizations are pushed by mass protests, other negotiations and schisms in power, and their further course depends on the institutions that exist when the crisis begins.
review more research
Riedl, R. B., Slater, D., Wong, J. i Ziblatt, D. (2020), „Authoritarian-Led Democratization“, Annual Review of Political Science 23: 315–332.
- Contribution to this answer
- Riedl and the co-authors show an important fence: the authoritarian government does not have to open only when it is completely cornered. Sometimes democratization is acceptable to it precisely because it assesses that it is strong enough to take the risk of a freer game especially when it has a well-organized ruling party.
Development and verification of measurement methods
Geddes, B., Wright, J. i Frantz, E. (2014), „Autocratic Breakdown and Regime Transitions: A New Data Set“, Perspectives on Politics 12(2): 313–331.
- Contribution to this answer
- Geddes, Wright and Frantz show what can happen when an internal conflict or other crisis really overturns the regime: democracy is just one possible outcome, and very often the old authoritarian regime is replaced by another. That is why “crisis has opened the system” is not yet the same as “crisis has opened the way to democracy”.
comparing several countries or cases
Barany, Z. (2016), How Armies Respond to Revolutions and Why, Princeton University Press.
- Contribution to this answer
- Barany shows why, in a moment of great political crisis, the military’s decision can become crucial: the same army can defend the regime, refuse to shoot or divide, depending on its internal cohesion, its relations with power, its assessment of its legitimacy, the character of the protests and its external environment.
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