Research framework and broader academic knowledge base
Serbia: documented application of the same framework
Which early warning signs show that those in power are gradually taking control?
The early sign is not an offensive statement, a controversial law or a bad verdict, but the direction in which several moves are connected. Attacks on the independence of courts and electoral bodies, unequal application of the law, use of public money for the party, pressure on the media and organizations, removal of professional personnel and presenting any control as hostility towards the people are especially important.
It is necessary to watch whether the measures are repeated, whether the opponents are affected differently from the allies and whether each new change facilitates the next. One incident may have another explanation, but a pattern that reduces the possibility of a future defeat of the authorities requires early attention. Early reaction is important because then there are still more independent places from which facts can be checked, decisions challenged and people organized.
An early sign can also be a false alarm. More important are repetition, connecting multiple moves and different treatment of authorities and opponents than one statement or incident.
Works supporting this answer, with their evidence type and an explanation of how they relate to the claim.
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Waldner, D. i Lust, E. (2018), „Unwelcome Change: Coming to Terms with Democratic Backsliding“, Annual Review of Political Science 21: 93–113.
- Contribution to this answer
- Waldner and Lust warn that democratic backsliding is not every bad political move and that it is easy to overlook it too early. It is more important to follow the pattern of changes within the regime itself especially the degradation of political competition, participation and responsibility than to conclude from one incident that democracy has already disappeared.
data from a large number of countries
Lührmann, A. i Lindberg, S. I. (2019), „A Third Wave of Autocratization Is Here: What Is New About It?“, Democratization 26(7): 1095–1113.
Lührmann, A. i Lindberg, S. I. (2019), "A Third Wave of Autocratization Is Here: What Is New About It?", Democratization 26(7): 1095–1113.
- Contribution to this answer
- Lhrmann and Lindbergh show that modern autocracy usually does not begin with a coup, but with a gradual weakening of democratic qualities under elected authorities. That is why the early sign is often not the abolition of elections, but a series of minor losses of freedom, competition and institutional restrictions while the electoral facade still exists.
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Grillo, E., Luo, Z., Nalepa, M. i Prato, C. (2024), „Theories of Democratic Backsliding“, Annual Review of Political Science 27: 381–400.
- Contribution to this answer
- Grillo, Luo, Nalepa and Prato do not give a list of “symptoms”, but a map of mechanisms to be followed: whether the government is attacking electoral competition or expanding executive power and whether the obstacle comes from voters and elections or from institutions that limit executive power. The work helps not to confuse different signs into one story of backlash.
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Lührmann, A. (2021), „Disrupting the Autocratization Sequence: Towards Democratic Resilience“, Democratization 28(5): 1017–1039.
Lührmann, A. (2021), "Disrupting the Autocratization Sequence: Towards Democratic Resilience", Democratization 28(5): 1017–1039.
- Contribution to this answer
- Lhrmann describes a typical sequence in which first there is a growing dissatisfaction with democratic institutions and parties, then anti-pluralist actors use this dissatisfaction to get to the authorities, and only then they begin to weaken the mechanisms of responsibility and opposition. None of these things alone is enough evidence of autocratization, but connecting them in the same direction is a serious signal.
comparison of different combinations of conditions
Panzano, G. i Tomini, L. (2026), „Unity Makes Strength: Patterns of Democratic Resistance against Autocratization“, European Journal of Political Research, First View: 1–26.
- Contribution to this answer
- Panzano and Tomini study what helps to stop the already started autocracy, not how to recognize it early. The work is useful because it shows why the reaction is important before a complete democratic breakdown, but for the very question “what are the early signs?” is an indirect source.
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