Research framework and broader academic knowledge base
Serbia: documented application of the same framework
Does it matter whether a government emerged through a coup, war, revolution, or the gradual weakening of democracy?
Yes, because the way government is created usually determines its first supports, fears and rules.
The government created by the military coup must resolve the relationship with the officers who brought it to power; the revolutionary government often relies on the party and organizations created during the struggle; the government created in the war can long justify the concentration of power by the security threat. When democracy weakens gradually, elected leaders more often use existing laws, elections and institutions to change them from within to their advantage. Yet the origin is influenced by who can replace the leader and what kind of crisis is not the best.
Origin is not destiny. War, economy, new leader and external support can later completely change the initial way of governing.
Works supporting this answer, with their evidence type and an explanation of how they relate to the claim.
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Geddes, B., Wright, J. i Frantz, E. (2018), How Dictatorships Work, Cambridge University Press.
- Contribution to this answer
- Geddes, Wright and Frantz show that the way in which dictatorship arises leaves a long organizational trail: who initially held power and how the regime is organized influences the later distribution of power, personalization, and the way it falls.
comparing several countries or cases
Brownlee, J. (2007), Authoritarianism in an Age of Democratization, Cambridge University Press.
- Contribution to this answer
- Brownlee shows that the historically built party organization and cohesion of the elites can give the authoritarian regime much greater resistance to political crises. The initial institutional structure therefore affects what the regime can later endure.
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Bermeo, N. (2016), „On Democratic Backsliding“, Journal of Democracy 27(1): 5–19.
- Contribution to this answer
- Bermeo shows that modern autocracy often begins not with a coup, but with a gradual expansion of the executive power and a strategic change in electoral conditions. The manner of emergence of today’s authoritarianism can therefore be quite different from the classical military dictatorship.
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Haggard, S. i Kaufman, R. R. (2021), Backsliding: Democratic Regress in the Contemporary World, Cambridge University Press.
- Contribution to this answer
- Haggard and Kaufman show how elected authorities can gradually collapse democracy through polarization, rearrangement of the party system and weakening of restrictions. The path by which the system enters autocracy also affects the actors and institutions that remain capable of opposing it.
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Meng, A., Paine, J. i Powell, R. (2023), „Authoritarian Power Sharing“, Annual Review of Political Science 26: 153–173.
- Contribution to this answer
- Meng, Paine and Powell show that the ability of the founding coalition to force a leader to respect a deal affects how much division of power will later be real. The origin of the regime therefore also determines what threats the leader expects from his associates.
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