Research framework and broader academic knowledge base
Serbia: documented application of the same framework
How do those in power prevent their opponents from joining forces?
The government uses the fact that its opponents often have different goals, identities and mutual distrust. It can offer one group concession or access to an institution, present another as extreme, expose the third to punishment, and send a message to everyone that their partner will leave them as soon as the risk rises.
Surveillance, infiltration and attacks on the organizers make it even more difficult for people to exchange reliable information and make a binding agreement. Thus, the common interest remains weaker than the fear that someone else will give up first. Resistance therefore requires more than general dissatisfaction: a limited common goal, rules of cooperation and a way to resolve disputes are needed. Even the widest alliance is not automatically successful; if there is no clear agreement on the first steps and behavior after the victory, it can be immediately weakened.
Broad association is not always enough. Too large an alliance can lose a common goal, discipline or ability to govern if it wins.
Works supporting this answer, with their evidence type and an explanation of how they relate to the claim.
comparing several countries or cases
Svolik, M. W. (2012), The Politics of Authoritarian Rule, Cambridge University Press.
- Contribution to this answer
- Svolik shows the basic problem of any authoritarian government: people who are excluded from government can become a serious threat to it if they manage to organize themselves. Therefore, the regime combines repression and co-optation to make it difficult to create a sufficiently large and organized opposition but the book explains more why organized opposition is a problem for the regime than all the concrete ways in which its connection is prevented.
comparing several countries or cases
Schedler, A. (2013), The Politics of Uncertainty: Sustaining and Subverting Electoral Authoritarianism, Oxford University Press.
- Contribution to this answer
- Schedler shows that in an electoral autocracy, the struggle is not only for the votes but also for the rules of the political game. The government is trying to keep the opposition weak and divided enough that it cannot easily turn the elections into a real threat, while the opposition is trying to coordinate the protest and the electoral strategy despite these restrictions.
comparing several countries or cases
Gamboa, L. (2022), Resisting Backsliding: Opposition Strategies against the Erosion of Democracy, Cambridge University Press.
- Contribution to this answer
- Gamboa shows how much it can help the regime when its opponents manage to narrow the political space or lead them to strategies that isolate them from potential allies. The opposition better preserves the possibility of joint resistance when it chooses goals and methods that can bring together a wider circle of actors and do not give the authorities an easy reason to close the system further.
comparing several countries or cases
Bunce, V. J. i Wolchik, S. L. (2011), Defeating Authoritarian Leaders in Postcommunist Countries, Cambridge University Press.
- Contribution to this answer
- Bounce and Wolchik show how dangerous it is for an authoritarian leader when until then separated opposition actors, civil society and election observers connect around a common strategy. It is precisely such coordination that has enabled the opposition in more post-communist cases to turn unfair elections into a real opportunity to change power.
Explain how the system works
Kuran, T. (1991), „Now Out of Never: The Element of Surprise in the East European Revolution of 1989“, World Politics 44(1): 7–48.
- Contribution to this answer
- The Koran shows that the government does not have to physically prevent people from meeting to make it difficult for them to come together: if people hide their true opinion because they expect the price of public opposition, each individual sees much less discontent than there really is. Thus, potential allies find it difficult to reveal each other until an event breaks that circle of silence.
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