Research framework and broader academic knowledge base
Serbia: documented application of the same framework
Why might even a huge protest fail to change the government?
A huge protest shows that dissatisfaction is widespread and destroys the notion that opponents are lonely, but the number of people does not determine who has the authority to change the decision. It is necessary to know what exactly is wanted, who negotiates, how the pressure is maintained after the first gathering and what is done if the government delays, offers a small concession or applies force.
Without organization, allocation of tasks and ways to involve people who can not be constantly on the street, energy can be depleted. The protest becomes a political force when it changes the behavior of institutions, allies of the government and the services that carry out the orders. And a small gathering sometimes triggers a big change, so the number is not unimportant; it is one resource whose effect depends on the goal, duration and connection to other forms of action.
A small protest sometimes triggers a big change. The number of participants is important, but it is not enough to explain how the decision or the government will change.
Works supporting this answer, with their evidence type and an explanation of how they relate to the claim.
review more research
Han, H., Baggetta, M. i Oser, J. (2024), „Organizing and Democracy: Understanding the Possibilities for Transformative Collective Action“, Annual Review of Political Science 27: 245–262.
- Contribution to this answer
- Han, Baggetta and Oser make a key difference between mobilizing and organizing: it is possible to quickly take a huge number of people out on the street without having a network of relationships, leadership and shared ability that can make decisions and continue the pressure when the first wave passes. A large mass is therefore not the same as permanent political power.
review more research
Chenoweth, E. (2021), Civil Resistance: What Everyone Needs to Know, Oxford University Press.
- Contribution to this answer
- “Chenoweth shows that a successful civic campaign requires much more than one large gathering: the number and diversity of participants, the ability to change tactics, resistance to repression and, in particular, the transitions of people from institutions and groups on which the government relies are important.
data from a large number of countries
Beissinger, M. R. (2022), The Revolutionary City: Urbanization and the Global Transformation of Rebellion, Princeton University Press.
- Contribution to this answer
- Beissinger directly shows the paradox of huge urban protests: the city allows hundreds of thousands of people to quickly gather near the centers of power, but such revolutions often create very broad and improvised coalitions that know what they are against, and much harder to reach agreement on what should come after.
comparing several countries or cases
Ong, E. (2022), Opposing Power: Building Opposition Alliances in Electoral Autocracies, University of Michigan Press.
- Contribution to this answer
- Ong shows why the very number of people does not solve political coordination: organizations with different interests have to believe that they depend on each other and accept the compromises necessary for joint action. A huge protest can show dissatisfaction, but it does not automatically create a political alliance capable of taking the next step.
comparing several countries or cases
Gamboa, L. (2022), Resisting Backsliding: Opposition Strategies against the Erosion of Democracy, Cambridge University Press.
- Contribution to this answer
- Gamboa shows that the effect of the opposition action depends on what its goal is and what kind of political space it leaves behind. A large mobilization can force power, but if the strategy isolates the opposition, breaks coalitions or the authorities facilitate additional closure of institutions, the size of the protest itself does not guarantee long-term gains.
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