Research framework and broader academic knowledge base
Serbia: documented application of the same framework
How can the opposition still win an unfair election?
The opposition can also win an unequal match when the government has failed to remove all uncertainty. Chances rise if the opponents agree on a joint appearance, build a network on the ground, attract voters outside their usual circle, collect evidence and organize vote protection.
It is also important for citizens to believe that others really want change, because the expectation of possible success increases turnout and readiness to risk. The result must be clear enough that its cancellation becomes politically expensive and that people in the electoral administration, courts and services accept that the change is real. It is not a recipe that always works. In a more closed system, the government can ban the candidacy, openly forge the result or use force, so the strategy must suit.
We know a lot from known successes in certain regions. A similar strategy can fail where the government is more closed, so successful examples should not be converted into a recipe.
Works supporting this answer, with their evidence type and an explanation of how they relate to the claim.
comparing several countries or cases
Howard, M. M. i Roessler, P. G. (2006), „Liberalizing Electoral Outcomes in Competitive Authoritarian Regimes“, American Journal of Political Science 50(2): 365–381.
- Contribution to this answer
- Howard and Roessler show that unfair elections have not been decided in advance: one of the most important conditions for a liberalizing outcome is that opposition parties unite enough for the authorities to offer a serious challenger. But the victory of the opposition in itself does not yet guarantee that the country will become a democracy.
comparing several countries or cases
Bunce, V. J. i Wolchik, S. L. (2011), Defeating Authoritarian Leaders in Postcommunist Countries, Cambridge University Press.
- Contribution to this answer
- “The six surprising electoral defeats of the authoritarian leaders Bunce and Wolchik show that the victory did not come from one trick: the opposition combined a common strategy, serious work with the voters, election observation, mobilization of civil society and experiences passed on from other countries. Unfair rules made it difficult to win, but did not make it impossible.
data from a large number of countries
Miller, M. K. (2015), „Democratic Pieces: Autocratic Elections and Democratic Development since 1815“, British Journal of Political Science 45(3): 501–530.
- Contribution to this answer
- Miller is more of a fence here than a recipe for winning a particular election: he shows that multi-party elections under autocracy can eventually build organizations, expectations and experiences that later increase the chance of democratization. Even the choices that the regime uses for its own survival can create resources that the opposition one day uses against it.
comparing several countries or cases
Gamboa, L. (2022), Resisting Backsliding: Opposition Strategies against the Erosion of Democracy, Cambridge University Press.
- Contribution to this answer
- Gamboa shows that the opposition doesn’t just win by “strongly attacking” the government: the choice of goals and methods affects whether it will attract allies, maintain political legitimacy and preserve institutions through which the government can still be challenged. A strategy that seems most radical doesn’t have to be the one that maximizes the chance of change.
comparing several countries or cases
Ong, E. (2022), Opposing Power: Building Opposition Alliances in Electoral Autocracies, University of Michigan Press.
- Contribution to this answer
- Ong shows why opposition unity is so difficult, but also when it becomes possible: parties are more willing to make an expensive compromise and a joint appearance when they assess that the government is really vulnerable and that they cannot win without each other. So, “unite” is not enough advice opposition elites must first believe that cooperation really changes the outcome.
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