Research framework and broader academic knowledge base
Serbia: documented application of the same framework
What is needed for a protest or campaign to produce a genuine political breakthrough?
In order for a protest or campaign to lead to a reversal, it is necessary that discontent becomes a permanent ability to act together. This means an organization that can survive arrest or fatigue, a clear goal wide enough to connect different people, division of tasks and multiple methods of pressure when the government closes one channel.
The campaign must maintain participation, preserve trust and show what the first step after success looks like. The turnaround becomes more likely when important people within the government, administration, economy or service assess that the change can succeed and that there is a safe way to refuse the order or leave the old alliance. The cause and effect here is fed: the passing of the allies increases the chance of victory, and the expectation of victory encourages the crossing.
It is difficult to separate cause and effect: people from the government cross more easily when they expect the victory of change, and their transition then increases the chance of victory. That is why the exact order of events is important.
Works supporting this answer, with their evidence type and an explanation of how they relate to the claim.
data from a large number of countries
Chenoweth, E. i Stephan, M. J. (2011), Why Civil Resistance Works: The Strategic Logic of Nonviolent Conflict, Columbia University Press.
- Contribution to this answer
- “Chenoweth and Stephan show that winning campaigns are not based on numbers alone: a large and diverse number of participants increases resilience, allows for multiple different tactics and, crucially, increases the chance of people from the military, bureaucracy, business elites and other pillars of the regime changing sides.
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Chenoweth, E. (2021), Civil Resistance: What Everyone Needs to Know, Oxford University Press.
- Contribution to this answer
- Chenoweth summarizes this in several key abilities: the campaign must attract broad and diverse participation, withstand repression, change tactics when the old ones stop working and cause defections on the opponent’s side. One spectacular event is not a substitute for the ability to maintain such pressure.
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Han, H., Baggetta, M. i Oser, J. (2024), „Organizing and Democracy: Understanding the Possibilities for Transformative Collective Action“, Annual Review of Political Science 27: 245–262.
- Contribution to this answer
- Han, Baggetta and Oser show what must exist under such a campaign: organizations that develop relationships, people capable of leading others and a common ability to make decisions. Without this, a large number of supporters can be an audience or a current mass, but it is difficult to become a permanent political force.
comparing several countries or cases
Barany, Z. (2016), How Armies Respond to Revolutions and Why, Princeton University Press.
- Contribution to this answer
- Barany shows why the reaction of the army is often crucial: a large rebellion can hardly succeed if the armed forces remain fully ready to smother it. Their decision depends on the internal cohesion of the army, the regime’s attitude towards it, the assessment of the legitimacy of the government, the character of the demonstrations and the external environment.
comparing several countries or cases
Bunce, V. J. i Wolchik, S. L. (2011), Defeating Authoritarian Leaders in Postcommunist Countries, Cambridge University Press.
- Contribution to this answer
- Bounce and Wolchik show how these elements can be combined on a concrete political occasion: opposition cooperation, civil society, mobilization of voters, election monitoring and the ability to adapt learned tactics to the local context have turned elections into moments when authoritarian power could indeed be defeated.
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